根据专业咨询公司Off-Highway Research的最新预测，今年全球建筑设备销量预计将创下113万台的历史新高，总价值近1100亿美元。

今年113万台的销量将比 2018年创下的111万台销量的历史记录高 2%。

在新冠肺炎疫情之前并没有预测到会出现销售高峰，Off-Highway认为，由于世界各国政府对疫情的刺激反应，尤其是在中国，将出现创纪录的销量。

由于中国的各省级政府在2020年发行的专项债券为基础设施支出和其他刺激措施筹集了资金，中国市场上涨了30%，这种增长一直持续到2021年第一季度，此后中国市场已经放缓。预计全年销量将下降 2%，但与往年的情况相比，中国市场的销量仍将保持在非常高的水平。

虽然中国市场正在放缓，但事实证明，世界许多其他地区的市场反弹比今年年初的预期更为强劲。欧洲市场预计将在2021年增长15%，而不是之前预测的个位数增长。销量反弹将达到与2019年出现的周期性高位相似的水平。

同样，对北美市场的预测也上调至13%。虽然北美市场不会重新回到2019年的高点，但在接下来的几年里应该会达到并超过2019年。

此前，日本市场2021年预期低迷，但现在看来，日本的建筑设备销量将温和增长1%。随着政府增加公共工程支出，市场达到2010年代初以来的最高水平，这种增长将建立在2020年销量温和增长的基础上。

由于2021年第二季度席卷全国的第二波新冠肺炎疫情，对印度市场的预测已从之前预期的销量增长15%下调至今年的11%。

世界其他地区的前景保持不变，预计今年的销量将增长6%。

Off-Highway Research董事总经理Chris Sleight表示：“过去6到9个月，全球设备销量的反弹令人震惊。虽然这是个好消息，但行业在满足市场需求方面仍面临许多挑战，包括供应链限制以及航运和其他物流方面的瓶颈。他说“我相信，如果没有这些，今年的销量可能会比我们预测的纪录还要高。然而，比较乐观的是，目前的上涨势头应该会延续到2022年。”

原文如下：

‘Record’ construction sales predicted for 2021

By Andy Brown

Global construction equipment sales are expected to hit a record high of 1.13 million units, with a value of almost US$110 billion this year, according to updated forecasts from specialist consultant Off-Highway Research.

This figure of 1.13 million units this year would be 2% higher than the previous record of 1.11 million machines, which was achieved in 2018.

This peak in sales was not forecast before the Covid-19 pandemic – Off-Highway believes the record-high will come about due to the stimulus response to the virus by governments around the world, most significantly in China.

A programme of special bond issues by provincial governments in 2020 to raise funds for infrastructure spending and other stimulus saw the Chinese market rise 30%. That growth continued into the first quarter of 2021, but the Chinese market has slowed since. A 2% decline in sales is expected for the year as a whole, but volumes in China will remain at a very high level in historic terms.

While China is slowing, the rebound in many other parts of the world is proving more robust than was anticipated at the start of this year. The European market is projected to rise 15% in 2021, as opposed to the previous forecast of single-digit growth. This should see volumes rebound to similar levels to the cyclical high which was seen in 2019.

Likewise, the forecast for North America has been upgraded to a 13% increase. While this will not see it regain the highs of 2019, these levels should be reached and surpassed in the following years.

A modest 1% rise in construction equipment sales is now forecast for Japan in 2021, as opposed to the previous expectation of a downturn. This rise will build on the modest increase in sales which was seen in 2020 as the government increased spending on public works and take the market to its highest since the early 2010s.

However, the forecast for India has been downgraded from the previously expected 15% increase to an 11% rise in sales this year. This is due to the second wave of Covid infections which swept through the country in the second quarter of 2021.

The outlook for the rest of the world remains unchanged, with the expectation of a 6% rise in sales this year.

Off-Highway Research managing director, Chris Sleight, said, “The global rebound in equipment sales over the last six to nine months has been striking. While this is excellent news, the industry still faces many challenges in meeting this demand, including supply chain constraints and bottlenecks around shipping and other logistics.

“I believe that, without these, sales this year might have been even higher than the record volumes we are predicting. However, the positive in this is that the current buoyancy should extend well into 2022 as a result.”

Source: https://www.international-construction.com/news/record-construction-sales-predicted-for-2021/8014300.article